On November 2nd 2004 the 55th US presidential elections took place in which George W. Bush was reelected as the US president over John Kerry the democratic candidate. Bush won 31 states resulting in 286 delegates over Kerry’s 19 states + Washington DC resulting in 251 delegates. The popular vote was very close however with Bush winning 50.7% over Kerry’s 48.3% making it the smallest wining margin by a victorious president in American History [1]. Turnout for the 2004 presidential election was placed at 60.7% placing it well above the average turnout for US presidential election which is placed at 55%. The contest was also fought hard by the two dominating parties in US politics with Bush’s camp spending an estimated $367 million dollars compared to Kerry’s $326 million [2].
Social scientists who have studied US presidential elections over the years come to two different conclusions when trying to explain voting behavior in the US. One camp argues that most voters decide who to vote for based on their allegiance to a specific party which has remained constant over the years. The second camp while still stressing party affiliations believes that in the past century there have been important elections in which specific issues and the particular appeal of a candidate have caused voters to deviate from their normal identification from a particular party. These voting events are called periods of realignment by political scientists.
The 2004 election was an election that specific issues namely the war in Iraq and America’s security played a significant role. While other issues like abortion, gun control, affirmative action, health care, etc played an important part in the election however these two issues were something new on the America’s political scene where as other the other issues have been around on the political scene for a very long time. In the US presidential elections where the competition is usually very close a new issue which can create realignments or higher turnout is crucial for the wining candidate.
The War in Iraq which started in March 2003 and caused a major upheaval for Bush’s approval rating (bringing it as high as 66% according to polls done by Gallup in May 2003 when the War was perceived to be going very well) by the time of elections in November 2004 had gone sour with no end in sight. During the presidential campaign the war in Iraq was a major issue in debates and advertisements with both candidates trying to present themselves as the better suited person to handle the war. In fact one of the major controversies in the campaign was allegations by the democrats that Bush had failed to fulfill his military service requirements at the Texas National Air Guard while at the same stressing Kerry’s distinguished service as a soldier in the Vietnam War.
With the memories of 9/11 still fresh among many Americans security also played largely in the 2004 presidential election with voters concerned in choosing a president that can ‘Protect’ America. Needless to say security was also a major source of debate and concern in the 2004 elections with Bush claiming that Kerry would be "uncertain in the face of danger" while Americans could trust him to be tough on terrorism.
While initial thoughts regarding the 2004 election might point to a realignment election since two new issues were introduced causing a change in the usual party affiliation of voters that is common in American politics however closer inspection shows otherwise. By inspecting the data of the 2004 US presidential elections one finds it similar to the preceding 2000 elections. Between the 2000 election and the 2004 one finds that only 3 states moved from one party to the other in the Electoral College [3]. From the first election to the second Bush’s popularity among conservatives had increased while it had decreased among moderates and liberals [4].
This data can be analyzed by the fact that Christian conservatives especially the large and influential Evangelical population was overwhelming in support of the Iraq war [5]. Polls conducted prior to the 2004 election showed that 3/4 of Bush supporters wrongly believed that Iraq was “providing substantial support to al-Qaeda” [6]. In effect the Iraq War strengthened Bush’s position among the conservative voters who are the central support base for the Republican Party.
With regards to security, on October 29th 2004 just four days prior to the election the first video of Osama Bin Laden was aired in over two years. Many analysts believed that it sealed the presidential elections in Bush’s favor since after all Bush’s cornerstone in his campaign was his ability to defend America. One of the most widely distributed campaign advertisement for Bush was the “Ashley’s story” during which a teenage girl who had lost her mother in the 9/11 attacks was shown to be comforted by the president and an emotional girl who says that “he’s the most powerful man in the world and all he wants to do is make sure I’m safe, that I’m OK” [7].
In reality while the two issues of the War in Iraq and Security were dominating in the 2004 presidential elections not only did they not cause realignments but rather they strengthened the support base of each of the two candidates. Bush was strengthened with the help of the two issues among conservatives namely religious Christian voters who believed in the Iraq campaign and sought a heavy handed security strategy while Kerry’s support base was strengthened among democratic liberals who strongly opposed the war and opposed the impediments to freedom and privacy that Bush’s security strategy had brought.
References:
1- Official Federal Election Commission Report, Retrieved February 20th <http://www.fec.gov/>
2- FEC, Retrieved February 20th
<http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/srssea.shtml>
3- Lanning, Kevin. “The Social Psychology of the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election”, Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2005, pp. 145-152
4- Newport, F., & Moore, D. W. “Key insights from election: 2004 election shows similar patterns as last election”. Gallup News Service, November 8 2004. retrieved July 22, 2005.
5- Bacevich, Andrew J. The New American Militarism, 2005
6- Kull, S., Ramsay, C., Subias, S., Weber, S., & Lewis, E. (2004). “Poll: Americans and Iraq on the eve of the presidential election”. The PIPA/Knowledge networks. retrieved July 22, 2005.
7- Progress for AmericaVoter Fund. “Ashley’s story”. 2004. Retrieved July 22, 2005.
Social scientists who have studied US presidential elections over the years come to two different conclusions when trying to explain voting behavior in the US. One camp argues that most voters decide who to vote for based on their allegiance to a specific party which has remained constant over the years. The second camp while still stressing party affiliations believes that in the past century there have been important elections in which specific issues and the particular appeal of a candidate have caused voters to deviate from their normal identification from a particular party. These voting events are called periods of realignment by political scientists.
The 2004 election was an election that specific issues namely the war in Iraq and America’s security played a significant role. While other issues like abortion, gun control, affirmative action, health care, etc played an important part in the election however these two issues were something new on the America’s political scene where as other the other issues have been around on the political scene for a very long time. In the US presidential elections where the competition is usually very close a new issue which can create realignments or higher turnout is crucial for the wining candidate.
The War in Iraq which started in March 2003 and caused a major upheaval for Bush’s approval rating (bringing it as high as 66% according to polls done by Gallup in May 2003 when the War was perceived to be going very well) by the time of elections in November 2004 had gone sour with no end in sight. During the presidential campaign the war in Iraq was a major issue in debates and advertisements with both candidates trying to present themselves as the better suited person to handle the war. In fact one of the major controversies in the campaign was allegations by the democrats that Bush had failed to fulfill his military service requirements at the Texas National Air Guard while at the same stressing Kerry’s distinguished service as a soldier in the Vietnam War.
With the memories of 9/11 still fresh among many Americans security also played largely in the 2004 presidential election with voters concerned in choosing a president that can ‘Protect’ America. Needless to say security was also a major source of debate and concern in the 2004 elections with Bush claiming that Kerry would be "uncertain in the face of danger" while Americans could trust him to be tough on terrorism.
While initial thoughts regarding the 2004 election might point to a realignment election since two new issues were introduced causing a change in the usual party affiliation of voters that is common in American politics however closer inspection shows otherwise. By inspecting the data of the 2004 US presidential elections one finds it similar to the preceding 2000 elections. Between the 2000 election and the 2004 one finds that only 3 states moved from one party to the other in the Electoral College [3]. From the first election to the second Bush’s popularity among conservatives had increased while it had decreased among moderates and liberals [4].This data can be analyzed by the fact that Christian conservatives especially the large and influential Evangelical population was overwhelming in support of the Iraq war [5]. Polls conducted prior to the 2004 election showed that 3/4 of Bush supporters wrongly believed that Iraq was “providing substantial support to al-Qaeda” [6]. In effect the Iraq War strengthened Bush’s position among the conservative voters who are the central support base for the Republican Party.
With regards to security, on October 29th 2004 just four days prior to the election the first video of Osama Bin Laden was aired in over two years. Many analysts believed that it sealed the presidential elections in Bush’s favor since after all Bush’s cornerstone in his campaign was his ability to defend America. One of the most widely distributed campaign advertisement for Bush was the “Ashley’s story” during which a teenage girl who had lost her mother in the 9/11 attacks was shown to be comforted by the president and an emotional girl who says that “he’s the most powerful man in the world and all he wants to do is make sure I’m safe, that I’m OK” [7].
In reality while the two issues of the War in Iraq and Security were dominating in the 2004 presidential elections not only did they not cause realignments but rather they strengthened the support base of each of the two candidates. Bush was strengthened with the help of the two issues among conservatives namely religious Christian voters who believed in the Iraq campaign and sought a heavy handed security strategy while Kerry’s support base was strengthened among democratic liberals who strongly opposed the war and opposed the impediments to freedom and privacy that Bush’s security strategy had brought.
References:
1- Official Federal Election Commission Report, Retrieved February 20th <http://www.fec.gov/>
2- FEC, Retrieved February 20th
<http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/srssea.shtml>
3- Lanning, Kevin. “The Social Psychology of the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election”, Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2005, pp. 145-152
4- Newport, F., & Moore, D. W. “Key insights from election: 2004 election shows similar patterns as last election”. Gallup News Service, November 8 2004. retrieved July 22, 2005.
5- Bacevich, Andrew J. The New American Militarism, 2005
6- Kull, S., Ramsay, C., Subias, S., Weber, S., & Lewis, E. (2004). “Poll: Americans and Iraq on the eve of the presidential election”. The PIPA/Knowledge networks. retrieved July 22, 2005.
7- Progress for AmericaVoter Fund. “Ashley’s story”. 2004. Retrieved July 22, 2005.
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